Let's denote the following events:
- A: The event that the man reports a 6.
- B: The event that the die actually shows a 6.
We need to find the probability that the die actually shows a 6 given that the man reports a 6. This is represented as P(B∣A). To find this, we can use Bayes' theorem:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∣B)⋅P(B)
We are given that the man tells the truth 3 out of 4 times, so:
P(Truth)=43
P(Lie)=1−P(Truth)=41
If the die actually shows a 6 (event B), the probability that the man reports a 6 (event A) is:
P(A∣B)=P(Truth)=43
The probability that the die actually shows any particular number, including 6, is:
P(B)=61
Next, we need to determine P(A): the total probability that the man reports a 6. This can be calculated using the law of total probability:
P(A)=P(A∣B)⋅P(B)+P(A∣Bc)⋅P(Bc)
Where Bc is the complement event that the die does not show a 6. We have:
P(A∣Bc)=P(Lie)=41
P(Bc)=1−P(B)=1−61=65
Plugging in the values, we get:
P(A)=(43⋅61)+(41⋅65)
P(A)=243+245=248=31
Now we can use Bayes' theorem:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∣B)⋅P(B)
P(B∣A)=31(43)⋅(61)=31243=243⋅3=83
Therefore, the probability that the die actually shows a 6 given that the man reports a 6 is:
Option C
83